By Sean Mueck
With former President Donald Trump returning to the White House on January 20th, NATO countries will once again wonder what the future entails for them as the most critical skeptic of the alliance returns to power once again.
Trump has routinely made comments over the past couple years where he suggests pulling the United States out of NATO, in a move reminiscent of the United States isolationist policies per World War I.
He has made statements such as, “Any deal—the worst deal—would’ve been better than what we have now. Ukraine is demolished. The people are dead. The country is in rubble.” Trump called Putin on Nov 7. He reportedly said privately to Putin that he would support a deal where Russia will control the land it captured from Ukraine.
In one of his most polarizing comments made earlier this year, Trump stated that he would not support NATO countries paying less than guidelines. He went on to state that “In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You gotta pay your bills.” When asked if he would support NATO countries not paying into the defense guidelines he went on to say, “Well, if we don’t pay, are you still going to protect us? I said, ‘Absolutely not.’”
While common sentiment among experts is that Trump will not pull out of the alliance entirely, the news of Trump’s election win might still be a shock for nations who did not expect such a drastic shift in United States foreign policy.
Last week, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski stated that Europe “urgently needs to take more responsibility for its security.” This shift in attitude among Warsaw and other neighboring governments shows how belief in United States led security is quickly waning.
Despite uncertainty in many NATO nations, the situation is not nearly as dire as the current conflict in Ukraine. With Trump much less likely to provide large swaths of military aid, Kyiv will have to quickly look towards increasing support from their European allies.
This backs up Trump’s statements of indifference to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and his unwillingness to help out members of NATO.
The Baltic and Scandinavian nations may have to change their approach to national security very soon as well. With ever increasing hostility from Russia, the eastern border of NATO will have to quickly shift defense spending from relying on communal money to funding their systems domestically.
With the eastern flank of NATO becoming ever more hostile with tensions rising over the full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO aligned countries face the stark reality of war coming to their borders for the first time in the alliance’s history.
As the global power shifts with China’s ever increasing influence over non aligned developing nations, the future of NATO could very well dictate what a new eastern led global order could bring. In return, breaking up the United States led western order of the past eighty years.
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