By Sean Mueck
Our world is changing quicker than ever before. After 80 years of a post-WWII United States-led world order, its foundation is quickly crumbling. A rapidly industrializing China has quickly risen and shattered the previous status quo. The question now lies, will nations stay with the Western-led United States system, or will they find new guidance and be influenced to shift to an Eastern-led Chinese system?
The sole individual who has the most power over the United States’ future currently is, unsurprisingly, President Donald Trump. However, with the supreme power has come the most extreme shift in United States foreign policy by far in the past 80 years. In merely a little more than 100 days in office, President Trump has completely flipped the script on how we interact with our allies, and, even more importantly, our enemies.
Starting off with our allies, our relationships have quickly soured. Trump has placed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. This is completely unlike anything that has been seen before. Canada is perhaps our closest ally figuratively and literally. This action has driven a stake through previously cordial relationships on both a government and a societal level. Canada’s new prime minister, Mike Carney, in a recent Oval Office meeting, stated firmly to Trump that Canada is not for sale and will not become the 51st state. While relations might seem somewhat relieved as of right now, these comments clearly show underlying tension on a core level.
When analyzing the social relationship between the United States and Canada, it is perhaps even worse. Many Canadians are now outright boycotting American products and are creating a “Buy Canadian” movement. This rift is unprecedented. Canada and the United States have historically had one of the tightest connections in modern history. They fought alongside one another during WWII. Even when the U.S. was in Vietnam, over 40,000 Canadians volunteered to join the US military.
Trump has made it clear that no matter how close your relations are with the United States, anything can happen now.
When moving overseas to Europe, the same story is quickly playing out. European NATO countries and other allies of the U.S. are now more alone than ever before. In front of the world, Trump berated Zelensky and stated that his own ally in Kyiv started the war instead of Russia.
While Ukraine faces the most dire consequences, the rest of Europe is now on high alert. European allies of the United States have relied on our military for protection from Russia. This protection is no longer guaranteed. As the United States isolates more and more, the rest of NATO faces a stark reality where they now must be more self-reliant in a future where the U.S. may not come to help if conflict breaks out.
The United States has clearly relinquished soft power control in favor of hard power. In the wake of the United States’ soft power, China has now taken its place.
In just 20 years, the majority of the world went from having the U.S. as their largest trade partner to China. Recently, China has been making large strides in funding infrastructure projects in Africa, subsequently increasing their influence by trapping countries in debt under the Chinese system. Just last year, Xi Jinping announced $51 billion in funding for infrastructure projects across the entire continent of Africa.
On top of this, China has been expanding its direct control over the region with naval bases. The Africa Center for Strategic Studies found that Chinese firms are present in over a third of all African port developments. This is a crucial tool in expanding influence over the region.
Perhaps the greatest showcase of China’s forming of a new world order is their involvement in BRICS. BRICS is a multi-government economic organization that is secured by the founding countries of China, Russia, India, and Brazil. While founded in 2009, its influence has only grown more and more recently as it stands in direct opposition to the Western United States-led economic world.
Lastly, and most noticeable recently, is China’s desire to expand and gain new territory. While China has threatened to seize Taiwan, it has moved to control vast swaths of the South China Sea, which are either international waters or controlled by neighboring countries like Vietnam and the Philippines.
In recent days, fighting has once again broken out in the northern Kashmir province of India. Pakistan and India have long had extreme tensions over the region, which have boiled over again. Quickly after the conflict broke out, China quickly favored the side of Pakistan. In the same region, India and China have long had border disputes as well. By siding with Pakistan, China can utilize military intelligence in an attempt to undermine India from an observing position to gain more land with little loss.
Even in this region, the argument over world orders follows. The United States has historically been allies and will be expected to side with India even if not publicly announcing their support. With the two most powerful nations on earth most likely picking sides very soon over an extremely politically hostile environment, treading will have to be done carefully.
With this, it should be clear that geopolitics and the new rising Chinese world order will have lasting effects for everyone, no matter where you are in the world. Nations will soon most likely have their hands forced into picking a side. Will you side with the 80-year champions of the west or move to the emerging powerhouse of the east? The world will be watching to see which superpower will play their cards correctly.
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