By: ANDRES ARROYO
The election is Tuesday, people are casting their ballots, and professors and political analysts are making their final election predictions. Professor Allan Lichtman, who has predicted every election correctly for the last four decades, predicts that Joe Biden will win in 2020. With these interesting predictions coming out, I decided to make my own prediction about what the results will be in the 2020 election. So here it is in order: from the House, the Senate, and lastly, the White House.
The House of Representatives
I predict that the 2020 election for the House of Representatives will result in a Deomcrat majority once again. I think that the House for the most part will remain the same, with representatives like Kevin McCarthy, Ocasio-Cortez, and Nancy Pelosi, etc. If anything, I can see Democrats picking up two or three more seats. I can also see Republicans picking up a seat or two (but it won’t be enough to get the House majority), but I am not my breath on either of these two things. Overall, I think the blue seats will remain blue and the red seats will remain red.
A lot of eyes are on the Senate races. Many believe that the Senate can go any one of the three ways: a Republican majority, a Democratic majority, or even a 50-50 split between the two parties. Democrats need to flip 4 seats to gain the majority back, or if Biden and Harris win the election, they need three seats and Kamala is the tiebreaker. So let’s first review what senate races are safe for Democrats and Republicans.
Senate races safe for Democrats: Oregon, New Mexico, Illinois, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Virginia, Arizona, Colorado.
Senate races safe for Republicans: Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana. Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, West Virginia.
*I also have Kentucky as a safe Republican senate race. Although Democratic opponent Amy McGrath has destroyed him in the senate debates and had given Mitch a run for his money, I do believe that despite Mitch McConnell being the most hated politician in the Senate, and arguably the most partisan and corrupt politician, he will still win Kentucky’s senate race because the majority of the state has been (and likely always will be) firmy in the Republican camp.*
Battleground senate races: Kansas, Iowa, Michigan, Maine, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia.
These battlegrounds for the Senate are going to come down to which candidates get the most voter turnout for them, straight up. For Kansas, I believe that it’s seat will remain Republican. The polls are showing the signs of Kansas being Republican across the ballot. As for Georgia, I believe the Republican incumbent David Perdue will be reelected. I think the Dems have a shot in Georgia’s special election with Raphael Warnock. The polling has been solid and I think Warnock is going to win the special election.
Then you have South Carolina, where incumbent Lindsey Graham and Democratic opponent Jaime Harrison are in a battle of campaign fundraising, and both trying to win the votes of the people of their state. Senator Graham has said on many Fox News interviews that Harrison is raising a lot more money than Graham’s campaign, and that he is being killed financially. At the end of the Fox interviews, he has even encouraged people to donate to his campaign, saying that he needs money, and that his opponent is out funding him “because they hate my guts.” And the people “hating his guts” is a very accurate statement. Polls have been up and down for the incumbent, and Jaime Harrison has been right on his heels.
My prediction: I am making a bold prediction in South Carolina. I think Senator Graham will be voted out, and Jaime Harrison will become the new Senator of South Carolina. I will make a similar bold prediction with North Carolina with the race between incumbent Thom Tillis and Democratic opponent Cal Cunningham. I think this will be a lean Deomcratic vote.
As for Iowa, that can go either way. Right now incumbent Senator Ernst (R) is down in Iowa’s polls by one point to opponent Theresa Greenfield. Another factor is approval rating. Senator Ernst has also had an up and down approval, and many voters are frustrated that she hasn’t done enough to represent Iowa. My final prediction in Iowa’s senate race is that Ernst is voted out.
Lastly you have the state of Maine. And I think it’s safe to say that this will be the end of the road for Susan Collins. Her approval rating in Maine has absolutely tanked, and in the latest poll from November 1st, Sara Gideon leads the Republican incumbent by 8 points. If the polls are accurate, Senator Collins is about to get wrecked in this election.
So which party will control the Senate? Based on my predictions, I predict that the Democrats will gain the Senate Majority 52-48. But most of these were based on polls, and a lot of these states are close battlegrounds for the Senate race, so I also won’t be surprised if I am totally wrong.
Allan Lichtman predicts the election winner based on 13 factors: Midterm gains, no contests, incumbency, no third party, strong short term economy, strong long term economy, major policy changes, no scandals, no foreign/military failure, foreign military success, no civil unrest, charismatic incumbent, and uncharismatic opponent. I am using these 13 factors to determine my prediction, with one extra factor: honesty. The polls won’t be as relevant in my prediction. So let’s total up the score.
- Midterm gains by the incumbent party:
The Republicans lost the House during the midterm election. So this key goes to Joe Biden. (Biden 1 – 0 Trump)
- No Primary Contests:
No Republicans challenged Trump in the 2020 primaries. So this key goes to Trump. (Biden 1 – 1 Trump)
- Incumbent seeking reelection:
Trump had always planned to run for a second term, and has floated with the idea of running for a third or even fourth term. So this key goes to Trump. (Biden 1 – 2 Trump)
- No third party candidate:
Although there are Jo Jorgensen and Howie hawkings running for the Libertarian and Green parties, they likely won’t get the votes. So it’s for the most part a two party race, and this key goes to Trump. (Biden 1 – 3 Trump)
- Strong short term economy:
Under Trump, the pandemic pushed the economy into recession. So this key goes to Joe Biden. (Biden 2 – 3 Trump)
- Strong long term economy:
The poor response to the pandemic and the recession has caused a negative G.D.P. growth. So this key goes to the former Vice President. (Biden 3 – 3 Trump)
- Major policy changes:
Through big tax cuts, but also through executive orders, Donald Trump has fundamentally changed the policies of the Obama presidency. So this key goes to Trump. (Biden 3 – 4 Trump)
- No social unrest:
There has been a lot of social unrest, with enough violence to threaten social order. Some were KKK riots like in Charlottesville, and most of the unrest in 2018 came after the death of George Floyd. Then the president was scrutinized after clearing out peaceful protesters in Washington for a photo-op at the nearby church, like an authoritarian. So this key definitely goes to Biden. (Biden 4 – 4 Trump)
- No scandals:
Trump was impeached and saved by loyal senate Republicans after extorting Ukraine for dirt on the Bidens. And a lot of scandals that I could write a whole article about. So this key goes to Biden. (Biden 5 – 4 Trump)
- No foreign/military failures:
We have had difficult moments with Trump, but no major failures. So Trump gets this one. (Biden 5 -5 Trump)
- Major foreign/military success:
We haven’t had failures, but we also haven’t had big achievements. So the key goes to the former Vice President. (Biden 6 – 5 Trump)
- Charismatic incumbent:
The incumbent is NOT charismatic. He has made many insulin, misogynistic, and racist comments, has attacked the press, and failed to condemn fascist groups and white supremacists wile willing to condemn left wing groups. The double standard there burns. The president is profoundly immoral, and really only appeals to his base, so this key goes to Joe Biden. (Biden 7 – 5 Trump)
- Is the challenger uncharismatic?
Although Biden wasn’t as charismatic as Obama, he is more charismatic than Trump.
(Biden 8 – 5 Trump)
The president has a reputation of lying his ass off. He has made over 22,000 (and counting) false statements in his four years in office, and lied his way through the debates while Biden was for the most part accurate. So this key goes to Biden.
Final key score: Biden 9 – 5 Trump
Based on my 14 keys, I predict that Joe Biden will become the 46th U.S. President. And Donald Trump will be voted out of office.
So if Biden won by four more keys than Trump, what will that look like on the election map?
For this I did look at the final polls to make my predictions, especially for some of the battlegrounds. Here’s my prediction of the electoral map results.
I believe Biden will flip Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district (Omaha), Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, as well as turn North Carolina, a traditionally red state, blue. And although Biden is leading in Florida and Texas, I still see Trump managing to squeak out just enough votes to win those states, as he has the vote of older white voters, and (surprisingly) as well as a few hispanics. But I do believe that as time changes, and Texas begins to become more democratic, this will likely be the last time Texas votes Republican.