By Ethan Percival
The midterm elections. The mere mention of it strikes fear into the hearts of the political party controlling Congress. Previous administrations have seen congressional majorities wiped off the face of the Earth by this accursed event. A few months ago, Democrats dreaded the day these elections would finally arrive. Surprisingly, as November inches closer, Democrats have become more and more optimistic about their chances in the midterms. Why? Pull up a chair, and let’s talk politics.
Ever since the summer of 2021, it appeared that Democrats and Biden had a string of losses. From the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, to the failure to pass the Build Back Better Bill, and a high level of people who believe (and still believe) the country is heading in the wrong direction. As a result, Biden’s approval rating dropped to a record low of about 37% approving in mid-July of 2022.
However, Republicans have continued to shoot themselves in the foot with every move they make. With the historic overturning by a Conservative supermajority in the SCOTUS of the landmark decision Roe v. Wade, which guaranteed women the right to have an abortion, Republicans have found themselves in hot water as over 62% of American wanted Roe v. Wade to remain in place.
To add insult to injury, the GOP has “chosen” a list of weak Senate candidates for the Midterms. These candidates likely won the GOP primaries because they had been supported by former president Trump. And to add more insult to injury, Trump himself is being heavily scrutinized by the FBI for illegally hoarding 184 classified documents in his residence of Mar-a-Lago.
While the Republicans continue to trip themselves up, the Democrats have amassed a sizable list of victories over the summer. With the passing of several large pieces of legislation such as:
- House Bill 127, which is the first gun control bill in 28 years.
- The CHIPS Act, which boosts domestic semiconductor production and research.
- The PACT Act, which expands the health care and benefits for millions of veterans who were exposed to the toxic burn pits.
- The Inflation Reduction Act which not only lowers the cost of many prescription medicines, but also gives 370 billion dollars in addressing climate change and investing in clean-energy.
In addition to this, Biden’s unwavering support to Ukraine in their fight against Russia’s tyranny and the killing of Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri have put Biden on a winning streak. In only a month and a half, Biden’s approval rating has gone from an all time low to the highest it’s been this year and it continues to rise.
Now, these events in no way guarantee a complete and utter victory for Democrats in the Midterms. According to FiveThirtyEight, the chances of Democrats holding the US House of Representatives is a meager 25% next to the Republicans’ 75% chance of winning the house. However, Democrats fare significantly better in the Senate with a 69% percent chance of not only holding the Senate, but even increasing their numbers in it.
Although, nothing is impossible. Sure, the Democrats could hold both chambers of Congress, but the Republicans could do the same. Only the people of the United States can truly decide the victors in this election. For now, all eyes are on the November Midterms, and what they may bring.